USD/MXN – US Dollar Breakdown vs Mexican Peso, Watch 2019 Low

January 7, 2020

Source: DailyFX
By: Paul Robinson

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USD/MXN HIGHLIGHTS:

  • USD/MXN big-picture triangle broke to end 2019
  • A drop through 18.7433 need to give conviction

To end 2019, USD/MXN broke out of the three-year-long triangle it had been building as a result of declining volatility. The break so far has held minimal velocity which could change quickly if last year’s low at 18.7433 is broken. The lack of momentum could also mean we are in for a ‘fake-break’.

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Mexico peso headed for choppy waters on back of trade uncertainty

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10/24/19 – Reuters

By Abraham Gonzalez

Mexico’s peso is headed for choppy waters in what remains of 2019 as the ongoing U.S.-China trade war and the uncertain fate of the new North American trade deal could cause the currency to fluctuate between 18.80 and 21 per dollar, analysts say.

The peso’s immediate future ultimately depends on whether the world’s two largest economies can resolve their trade dispute and if U.S. lawmakers ratify the new U.S-Mexico-Canada (USMCA) trade agreement before it gets bogged down in the U.S. electoral politics.

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Trump election rhetoric could send Mexican peso down almost 9% to 21.30 per dollar -Banorte

 

peso10/09/19 – Reuters

By Noe Torres

The Mexican peso could fall almost 9% to 21.30 per dollar next year if U.S. President Donald Trump again threatens the country during his re-election campaign, Mexican financial group Banorte said on Tuesday.

Trump has repeatedly sent the Mexican currency and stock market tumbling after attacking Mexico over immigration and trade, mostly on Twitter, threatening to impose tariffs on Mexican goods or close the countries’ shared border.

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Mexico’s peso seen remaining attractive even with more rate cuts

peso09/03/19 – Reuters

By Abraham Gonzalez

As central banks across the globe cut interest rates, Mexico’s policymakers still have room to lower borrowing costs by as much as 100 basis points before the peso becomes less attractive than other currencies, fund managers and financial analysts say.

The spread between the key interest rate in the United States (2.0%-2.25%) and that of Mexico (8.0%) stands at 600 basis points, the third highest in the world after Argentina and Turkey and its highest level in a decade.

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Mexico Posts Largest Current Account Surplus on Record

08/23/2019- Reuters

By Anthony Esposito

pesoMexico posted a second quarter current account surplus of $5.143 billion, the largest surplus since records began in 1980 and the first since the second quarter of 2010, central bank data showed on Friday.

The second quarter current account surplus was equivalent to 1.6% percent of gross domestic product (GDP).

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Cooler Mexican Inflation Opens Door to More Possible Rate Cuts

08/22/2019- Reuters

By Dave Graham

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Photo by Negative Space on Pexels.com

Mexican consumer price inflation eased more than expected during the first half of August, data from the national statistics agency showed on Thursday, which could create room for the central bank to lower borrowing costs in the coming months.

In the year through early August, prices rose by 3.29%, below the forecast of a Reuters poll of economists for a reading of 3.56%. In July, annual inflation slowed to 3.78%.

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Mexico peso faces difficult times as global trade anxiety sets in: Reuters poll

8/7/19 – Reuters

By Gabriel Burin

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Mexico’s peso is falling victim to increasing global trade tensions and will likely struggle in the near future, only a few months after the currency was spared from the impact of direct U.S. tariffs, a Reuters poll showed.

The peso MXN= is expected to trade at 19.66 per dollar in one year, 0.4% weaker than July’s survey and 0.2% softer than its intraday value on Wednesday, according to the median forecast of 17 analysts polled Aug. 2-6.

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Mexico’s stimulus package to have ‘immediate impact’: finance minister

7/29/19 – Reuters

By Anthony Esposito

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A $25 billion stimulus package unveiled by Mexico on Monday should have an immediate impact, Finance Minister Arturo Herrera said, as Latin America’s second-largest economy teeters on the brink of a recession.

The package comes just days before Mexico’s national statistics agency publishes second-quarter growth figures and amid an discussion over whether the economy has slipped into recession.

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AMLO Says He’d Like Mexico to Cut Interest Rates to Boost Growth

7/29/19 – Bloomberg

By Nacha Cattan and Eric Martin

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Mexico’s interest rates are too high for a slowing economy, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said in an interview, though he added that he respects the central bank’s freedom to set them independently.

“The Bank of Mexico is watching over inflation. That’s not bad,” Lopez Obrador told Bloomberg Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait in Mexico City. “But it’s important to lower rates to kickstart the economy.”

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Mexico’s President Keeps Score by the Peso as Economy Nosedives

7/25/19 – Bloomberg

By Nacha Cattan

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Before stepping into his daily crack-of-dawn news conference, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador tends to ask advisers for an update on how the peso is doing.

Pretty well, has been the answer lately. But Mexico’s currency is just about the only indicator that’s delivering good economic news to its president.