Mexico’s piñata peso is a signal of ‘Trump risk’

09/25/16 Financial Times

DonaldTrumpPinataThe piñata is a papier-mâché model stuffed with sweets that eager Mexican children thump with sticks. Lately, the Mexican peso has seen the stuffing knocked out of it too. It has sunk to levels not seen in real terms since Mexico’s 1994-95 Tequila crisis. One of the reasons for this, among several, is that Donald Trump could become the next president of the US. One of the world’s most heavily traded emerging market currencies is taking one for the world in an early wallop of rising “Trump risk”.

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The Future of the U.S. Economy Lies in Mexico

09/26/16 Bloomberg View

us mex flagThe muscle behind the U.S. economic expansion is the same as the recovery’s weakness, and it lies in one word: Mexico.

Since the low in December 2009, employment in the U.S. has increased by 13.6 million workers. Forty-three percent of that growth, or 5.9 million workers, came from Hispanics — some born in the U.S., others immigrants. Mexico is by far the largest country of origin for Hispanic immigrants to the U.S. Net migration from Latin America since the recession has been minimal (more Mexicans have left than arrived), so this can best be thought of as a “demographic dividend” from Hispanic immigration in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s.

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Fears for Mexico’s economy grow as the peso nears the 20 to the dollar mark

09/25/16 Los Angeles Times

peso by Guanatos GwynThe battered Mexican peso has tumbled to historic new lows in recent days, nearing a psychological barrier of 20 pesos to the U.S. dollar and causing anxiety on the streets, at businesses and in the halls of government.

Among other factors, many point to the recent rise in U.S. presidential polls of Donald Trump, the Republican nominee who has vowed to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border and has been widely accused here of Mexico-bashing.

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Mexico ‘will talk to the devil’ if Trump gets elected, economy minister says

09/22/16 Fusion

MinisterEconomy.jpgMexico’s Minister of the Economy Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal says his predominantly Catholic country is prepared to go to unholy extremes if Republican candidate Donald Trump gets elected in November.

“If we have to talk to the devil to guarantee the safety and the future of the Mexican people—in Mexico and the U.S.— then Mexico we’ll talk to the devil,” Guajardo Villarreal said during an Americas Society/Council of the Americas panel discussion Wednesday night in New York City.

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Citigroup Predicts Record Mexico Rate Boost as Trump Sinks Peso

09/22/16 Bloomberg

pesomexicanoAs far as Citigroup Inc. is concerned, Mexico has little choice but to carry out an unprecedented interest-rate increase to arrest a plunge in the peso triggered by Donald Trump’s recent surge in U.S. presidential polls.

Mexico’s exchange rate has tumbled 6.7 percent in the past month, the biggest slide among the world’s major currencies. Citigroup economist Sergio Luna now predicts Banco de Mexico will lift its key lending rate by 0.75 percentage point on Sept. 29, the most since the bank adopted a new benchmark in 2008.

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Mexico’s economy is taking a beating from Donald Trump’s rising poll numbers

09/19/16 Fusion

7053145147_1e8547101e_o.jpgA Trump presidency could be a nightmarish scenario for Mexico. And his candidacy alone is already causing some sleepless nights for Mexican economists.

Trump’s trip to Mexico City in late August quickly turned into a diplomatic fiasco for the Peña Nieto administration, reportedly leading to the resignation of Mexico’s Finance Minister Luis Videgaray.

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Mexico central bank watching weak peso’s impact on inflation

09/15/16 Reuters

mexican pesosMexico’s central bank will pay close attention to inflationary pressures stemming from the weak peso while deciding monetary policy, deputy governor Manuel Sanchez said on Thursday.

The upside risks dominated the outlook for inflation, and inflationary pressures arising from the peso’s weakness posed the biggest concern, Sanchez said in a speech published on the central bank website.

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