[Video] Charting a New Course Part 1: U.S.-Mexico Economic Interdependence

The Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute has released a series of new essays covering a range of important bilateral issues. We kick off our companion video series, “Charting a New Course,” with a focus on economic interdependence. Mexico Institute Deputy Director, Chris Wilson provides an overview of the scope and depth of U.S.-Mexico economic cooperation and also talks about what can be done to make the alliance stronger. That’s the focus of this edition of Wilson Center NOW.

Watch the video…

EVENT ON MONDAY | The State of Mexico’s Economy

mexican pesosWHEN: Monday, January 9, 1:30-3:00pm

WHERE: 6th Floor Board Room, Wilson Center, Washington, DC

Click to RSVP

The Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute is pleased to invite you to an event with the International Monetary Fund’s Mexico team, who will present the conclusions of the recently-completed 2016 Article IV consultation with Mexico.

Mexico’s economy has been growing at a moderate pace, inflation is low, and the unemployment rate has been declining. Fiscal consolidation has begun and the financial system remains strong and resilient to severe shocks. It would be critical to adhere to the planned fiscal consolidation to put the public debt ratio on a downward path, and take steps to strengthen the commitment framework for fiscal policy. Steadfast implementation of the plan to reform PEMEX and strengthen its financial viability is also important. Future monetary policy decisions should continue to be guided by the objective of keeping inflation expectations anchored, while clear communication by the central bank is critical. The exchange rate should continue to act as the key shock absorber to help the economy adjust to external shocks. Significant progress has been achieved in strengthening financial sector prudential oversight but some gaps remain, especially in the governance framework of CNBV and IPAB. On the structural front, strengthening the rule of law and boosting female labor supply would boost potential output and reduce inequality and poverty. Going forward, Mexico will need to navigate an uncertain and complex external environment, with elevated risks of protectionism and heightened global financial market volatility.

Speakers

Robert Rennhack
Deputy Director, Western Hemisphere Department, IMF

Costas Christou
Advisor, Western Hemisphere Department, IMF

Alex Klemm
Senior Economist, Western Hemisphere Department, IMF

Damien Puy
Economist,Western Hemisphere Department, IMF

Fabian Valencia
Senior Economist, Western Hemisphere Department, IMF

Commentator

Christopher Wilson
Deputy Director, Mexico Institute, Wilson Center

Moderator

Duncan Wood
Director, Mexico Institute, Wilson Center

Click to RSVP

3 ways Trump can slap tariffs on China and Mexico

11/14/16 CNN Money 

pesoPresident-elect Donald Trump has threatened to slap big tariffs on China and Mexico to help bring jobs back to America.

At first glance, it may seem hard to do without backing from Congress. But actually, Trump doesn’t even need Congress to approve it.

True, the Constitution gives Congress the right to impose tariffs on other nations. However, several complicated laws have been passed in the last 100 years that delegate that power from Congress to the president.

Trump has several options — each open to interpretation — but here are three key ways he can go after China and Mexico.

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Trump’s win has Mexico’s markets in chaos

11/09/16 Business Insider

Pesos by Flickr user Aleiex
Photo by Flickr user Aleiex

It’s no secret that a Donald Trump makes Mexico nervous. In fact, the Bank of Mexico held an emergency meeting on Wednesday in order to discuss the peso crashing more than 13% to a record low in the wake of Trump’s electoral victory.

While the central bank opted to keep policy on hold as the peso recouped some of its losses, Capital Economics Latin America Economist Adam Collins says his firm has penciled in a half point hike in interest rates to 5.25% at next week’s meeting. That is of course as long as the peso doesn’t come under renewed pressure.

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UPDATE 1-Mexico consumer confidence rebounds in Oct from recent low

11/7/16 Reuters

Mexico’s consumer confidence index rebounded in October from a more than 2-1/2 year low hit in the preceding month, the national statistics agency said on Monday.

Consumer confidence was 85.9 in October when adjusted for seasonal factors, up from a downwardly revised 85.1 in September, its lowest since January 2014.

Late last month, preliminary gross domestic product data for the third quarter showed Latin America’s No. 2 economy was on track to post its fastest growth in more than two years after a slump in the second quarter.

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StrawberryPickersNearPonchatoulaFSA

“Mexico to double berry output in four years with China’s help”

10/24/2016 EJInsight

Mexico expects its berry production to double in the coming four years with rising demand from China, the world’s second largest economy.

Mexican berry exports, which include blueberries, raspberries, blackberries and strawberries, are worth about US$1.5 billion a year, up 20 percent every year, Mario Alejandro Andrade Cárdenas, vice president of Foreign Trade of the National Agricultural Council (CNA), told EJ Insight.

“With such strong growth, which is partly contributed by China, it is likely that we will be able to double our production of berries in about four years,” Andrade said.

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Bank of Mexico Stresses Inflation Risk in Raising Rates

10/13/16 The Wall Street Journal 

Agustin_CarstensMEXICO CITY—The Bank of Mexico’s five board members all agreed last month that higher interest rates were necessary to stave off incipient inflation pressures amid a number of external and local risks to the Mexican peso, minutes of the meeting showed Thursday.

The board voted unanimously on Sept. 29 to raise the overnight interest rate target by a half percentage point to 4.75%, its third rate increase of the year, after the peso had again reached new lows against the U.S. dollar.

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