UPCOMING EVENT | One Month Out: New Perspectives on the 2018 Mexican Election

Mexican Elections (002)WHEN: Tuesday, May 22, 2018, 1:00-2:15pm

WHERE: 5th Floor, Wilson Center

Click to RSVP

On July 1, 2018, Mexicans go to the polls to pick a new President and a new Congress. Throughout the campaign, there has been a clear front-runner, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO), who on his third attempt to win the presidency appears to have cracked the code on how to convince Mexico’s voters that he offers an opportunity for positive change rather than a threat. AMLO’s Morena party may also be heading towards a congressional majority, raising the possibility that he will be able to enact an ambitious legislative agenda.

The next month will continue to see intense campaigning among the four remaining candidates. For voters who are unhappy with the status quo, that is a compelling and attractive prospect, and the polling numbers show that AMLO has been successful thus far in persuading voters across the demographic spectrum that he offers the best chance for meaningful change. The other candidates have turned their attention to attacking AMLO and his Morena party at every opportunity; yet, nothing has reduced his support from the Mexican electorate. Join us for an in-depth analysis of voting trends and the platforms of the candidates.

Speakers
Carlos Heredia
Professor, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE)
Advisory Board Member, Mexico Institute, Wilson Center

María Amparo Casar
Professor-Researcher, Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas (CIDE)
Advisory Board Member, Mexico Institute, Wilson Center

Juan Pardinas
General Director, Instituto Mexicano para la Competitividad (IMCO)
Advisory Board Member, Mexico Institute, Wilson Center

Moderator
Duncan Wood

Director, Mexico Institute, Wilson Center

For more information on the 2018 Mexican elections, visit our Elections Guide.

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3rd Local Candidate in Mexico’s July 1 Voting Killed in Week via @nytimes

05/11/2018 The New York Times

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MEXICO CITY — Gunmen killed a mayoral candidate in central Guanajuato state Friday, the third local candidate in Mexico’s July 1 elections murdered in the past week and one of more than a dozen during the entire campaign.

Most of the candidates for mayorships or state assembly seats killed have been in the drug cartel-plagued southern state of Guerrero.

The Guanajuato state prosecutors’ office confirmed that mayoral candidate Remedio Aguirre had been shot to death in the town of Apaseo El Alto. Aguirre was running for the leftist Morena party.

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Mexico election body blocks 17 male candidates masquerading as transgender women via @reuters

05/11/2018 Reuters

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MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – A Mexican state electoral body on Friday rejected the applications of 17 aspiring male candidates from various parties who tried to register as transgender female contenders for the July 1 elections.

The electoral institute for the state of Oaxaca in southern Mexico said in a statement that the 17 candidates had been temporarily blocked due to “suspected irregularities.”

The institute did not give further reasons for the move, but said it “will be vigilant that the constitutional principle of equality is adhered to, and that women have effective access to public office.”

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Support for Mexico presidential frontrunner narrows: poll

05/10/2018 Reuters

Mexican politician Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador,  leader of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) gestures as he addresses the audience during a meeting at Plaza Zaragoza in Monterrey, Mexico
Mexican politician Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, leader of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) gestures as he addresses the audience during a meeting at Plaza Zaragoza in Monterrey, Mexico February 25, 2017. REUTERS/Daniel Becerril

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) – Mexican leftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s lead over his nearest rival narrowed slightly ahead of the July 1 presidential election, a poll by GEA-ISA showed on Thursday.

Lopez Obrador, the former Mexico City mayor, received 29 percent support in the poll conducted from April 28-30, up from 28 percent in a mid-March poll. The results did not strip out undecided voters, unlike a number of polls.

His lead over second-placed Ricardo Anaya, who heads a right-left alliance, fell to five percentage points from six in the prior poll. Anaya’s support rose to 24 percent from 22 percent following the first television debate.

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Business Hates Mexico’s Presidential Front-Runner. And He Doesn’t Care

05/09/2018 Bloomberg

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Source: Eneas De Troya, Flickr

Andrés Manuel López Obrador, sharing a stage with crates of coconuts and limes, looks out upon a crowd of thousands: a sea of sombreros bobbing in the sun. They’re farmers, mostly—or used to be, before the North American Free Trade Agreement upended the old traditions here in the Mexican heartland. Now, many take whatever jobs they can find and lament that so much corn, Mexico’s iconic national crop, is now imported from the U.S.

López Obrador—or AMLO, as he’s widely known—assures the crowd that their dreams of returning to their farms are within reach. After he wins the presidential election on July 1, he says, he’ll provide them with free fertilizer and cheap fuel, and he’ll establish minimum price guarantees for homegrown crops. The fields here in the central Mexican state of Zacatecas will spring back to life, which will provide people with jobs and, in turn, stem the outward flow of migrants to America. But for this chain of prosperity to kick in, there’s one condition: An electoral deathblow must be struck against the ruling political class, a group López Obrador references in terms this rural audience appreciates.

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Mexican presidential candidate López Obrador open to international help to fight drug violence

05/09/2018 NBC News

amloMexican presidential frontrunner Andrés Manuel López Obrador on Tuesday said he was willing to enlist international organizations to help fight drug violence and corruption, countering critics who have said the nationalist candidate might resist working with foreign bodies.

The leftist former mayor of Mexico City, López Obrador has become voters’ firm favorite ahead of the July 1 election, vowing to lower violence, attack decades of political graft and focus attention on the poor.

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Mexico Probes Male Candidates Registered as Transgender

05/08/2018 The New York Times

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MEXICO CITY — Mexican electoral authorities said Tuesday they are investigating 17 male candidates who allegedly registered as transgender to avoid a gender quota in local races in the southern state of Oaxaca.

Oaxaca requires gender parity — equal numbers of male and female candidates — in local races. But the state also states that “the candidacy will be registered to the gender with which the candidate self identifies.”

The state electoral council said parties for the candidates under investigation filed registration documents that “indicated their desire to be registered as transgender women.”

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