Mexican Currency Traders Are More Worried About Amlo Than Trump

03/14/2018 Bloomberg

amloInvestors in Mexico’s currency are pricing in more tumult around this year’s presidential election than they anticipated before the 2016 U.S. vote that put Donald Trump in the White House.

The difference in price between short-term options and those that cover the period around the July 1 election is near a record high as investors pay up to protect themselves against volatility. The spread’s four-week moving average is now twice the level it was three months before the U.S. ballot.
The top contender in Mexico’s vote is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a left-leaning firebrand who some investors are concerned will seek to roll back efforts to open the economy, particularly the energy industry. While traders were equally worried about the potential effect of Trump’s pledges to slash imports from Mexico, his candidacy was viewed as somewhat of a long shot, reducing the demand for protection in the options market.

Mexicans torn on how much to fear ‘dangerous’ Amlo

03/13/2018 Financial Times

amlo.jpgMexicans ought to know what they think about Andrés Manuel López Obrador after the election front-runner’s three decades in politics, the last dozen on the campaign trail in pursuit of the presidency.

To many, the man known as Amlo is an honest and plucky David, a champion of ordinary folk, who will fell the Goliath that is Mexico’s corruption-tainted ruling class in the election on July 1.

But many business leaders and investors see him as a demagogue who is stuck in a 1970s ideological time warp and will pitch Latin America’s second-biggest economy into Venezuela-style ruin.

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Mexican leftist leads by 13.6 point in presidency race: opinion poll

03/08/2018 Reuters

amloLeftist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador leads by 13.6 percentage points in the run-up to Mexico’s July 1 presidential election and has an even bigger advantage over the ruling party candidate, a voter survey by polling firm Ipsos showed on Thursday.

The opinion poll seen by Reuters showed two-time runner-up Lopez Obrador, a former mayor of Mexico City, garnering 36.3 percent support in the election.

Running second on 22.7 percent was Ricardo Anaya, a onetime leader of the center-right National Action Party (PAN), who fronts the challenge of a right-left coalition.

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US-Mexico relations could get even more complicated with a Lopez Obrador victory

02/06/2018 CNBC

Source: Eneas De Troya, Flickr

The already-tense relations between Mexico and the United States could get a lot trickier depending on how the upcoming Mexican presidential election unfolds.

The frontrunner for the presidency is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a left-leaning politician who has repeatedly railed against President Donald Trump and his policies. Lopez Obrador is polling at 27.1 percent as of Feb. 18, leading a field of six candidates, according to Consulta Mitofsky, a polling firm in Mexico.

The campaign season for the July 1 election officially kicks off in late March.

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Mexico’s Presidential Front-Runner Stirs Firestorm With Ex-Fugitive Senate Pick

02/20/2018 Bloomberg

Mexico City

Mexico’s leftist presidential front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador stirred up a hornets’ nest of social media outrage by listing a one-time fugitive union leader as a possible Senate pick ahead of July’s general election.

The Twitter storm began over the weekend when Lopez Obrador’s Morena party placed Napoleon Gomez Urrutia among those who would become senators through proportional representation, meaning he’d win through voter support for Morena and not direct election. Gomez Urrutia has been living in Canada since at least 2008, when Mexico requested an extradition order for him to face charges of bilking $55 million in union funds.

Mexico’s Obrador Backs Private Oil Contracts, Top Adviser Says

02/20/2018 Bloomberg

Mexican politician Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador,  leader of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) gestures as he addresses the audience during a meeting at Plaza Zaragoza in Monterrey, Mexico
Mexican politician Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, leader of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) gestures as he addresses the audience during a meeting at Plaza Zaragoza in Monterrey, Mexico February 25, 2017. REUTERS/Daniel Becerril

Two years after vowing to cancel them if elected, Mexico’s leftist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador appears to be having a change of heart about the oil industry reforms of 2013 that opened the country’s energy sector to private investment.

The runner-up in both the 2006 and 2012 elections, Lopez Obrador, 64, has reviewed most of the oil tenders awarded to private drillers and found them to be beneficial for Mexico, his top business adviser, Alfonso Romo, said in an interview.
Amlo, as the current front-runner is known, found the auctions to be well-executed and transparent, Romo said at his Mexico City headquarters of Vector, the brokerage firm he owns. Romo added that not a single company would be nationalized if the candidate wins the election July 1.

Mexican leftist has 11-point lead in presidential race – opinion poll

02/07/2018 Reuters

Andres_manuel_lopez_obrador_oct05Left-wing Mexican presidential hopeful Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has an 11-point lead over rivals, according to an opinion poll completed last week, with his closest rival gaining slightly and the ruling party candidate losing support.

Lopez Obrador holds 34 percent of the vote, eleven percentage points more than Ricardo Anaya of the left-right coalition “For Mexico in Front” on 23 percent, according to the survey by polling firm Parametria, published by Reuters on Wednesday ahead of wider publication.

Two time presidential runner-up Lopez Obrador has promised to review billions of dollars of private oil contracts and wipe out corruption. He vows more social spending without upsetting Mexico’s macro-economic stability.

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