The Atlantic Monthly, 12/21/2010
We now know which states will lose and gain representation next year, but the real Census-politics story won’t be written for a few months, when we find out how many Hispanic voters the country has gained.
The answer will affect more than just House seats: It could put typically red Sun Belt states in the blue column for presidential elections to come.
Census officials have been predicting a sharp rise in the Hispanic population, based on the 2000 population numbers, for the past few years. They’ll release the 2010 race/origin breakdowns in February or March, confirming or denying their yearly best guesses.
Republicans should be happy about reapportionment, at first glance.
The big story is that Texas, a bright red state, which gained four House seats and Electoral College votes, while Rust Belt states and Democratic strongholds lost them. Ohio and New York each lost two; Michigan and Pennsylvania each lost one.
The national population shifts, however, bear the clear marks of a Hispanic population boom, meaning the political ramifications are more complicated than a simple net-plus for the GOP. Including Texas, the states to gain population are, by and large, states with already high and growing Hispanic segments: Florida, Arizona, and Nevada.
Mexico Institute 