Can Mexico cope with Trump?

12/7/2016 Foreign Policy 

Donald_Trump_August_19,_2015_(cropped)Donald Trump’s stunning electoral victory could very well transform the United States’ economic relations with the rest of the world. Perhaps the most dramatic changes will be felt by Mexico. During his election campaign, Trump proposed building a massive border wall, deporting millions of undocumented Mexican workers, renegotiating NAFTA, and imposing high tariffs of up to 35 percent on Mexican exports to the United States.

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VIDEO | What Does the World Expect of President-elect Trump: Mexico

Director Duncan Wood discusses what Mexico expects of President-elect Donald Trump.

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WEBCAST TOMORROW: What Does the World Expect of President-elect Donald Trump?

white_house_1500.jpgWHEN: November 15, 11:00 AM – 12:30 PM

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Watch the live webcast on TwitterFacebook, or on wilsoncenter.org. Tweet the panel your questions @TheWilsonCenter or post them on our Facebook page during the event.

The next U.S. Administration faces  a complicated, volatile world.

Join us for spirited conversation about the foreign policy expectations and challenges confronting the next President of the United States with distinguished Wilson Center experts on Mexico, Russia, China, the Middle East, Latin America and more.

Introduction

The Honorable Jane Harman
Director, President and CEO, Wilson Center

Speakers

Cynthia J. Arnson
Director, Latin American Program, Wilson Center

Robert Daly
Director, Kissinger Institute on China and the United States, Wilson Center

Robert S. Litwak
Director, International Security Studies, Wilson Center

Aaron David Miller
Distinguished Fellow, Middle East, Wilson Center

Matthew Rojansky
Director, Kennan Institute, Wilson Center

Duncan Wood
Director, Mexico Institute, Wilson Center

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What President Trump’s Mexico-bashing May Look Like in Practice

11/9/2016 The Economist

ENRIQUE PEÑA NIETO, the president of Mexico, was roundly castigated at home for meeting Donald Trump in August. Mr Trump, then the Republican presidential nominee, is reviled south of the border for calling Mexican migrants rapists, and for promising that he would force Mexico to pay for a wall between the two countries. In his defence Mr Peña said it was important to begin a dialogue early, with a view to reducing the potential harm a Trump presidency could cause Mexico.

That strategy is about to be put to the test. In Mexico the immediate effect of Mr Trump’s victory has been to send the already weak peso tumbling to new lows. Throughout the campaign the currency reacted badly to any perceived improvements in the Republican’s chances of victory. On early Wednesday morning it fell to more than 20 to the dollar—its biggest drop since 1994—on fears about the future of trade with the United States.

[…] Cooperation on matters of security is also of vital importance, and relations in this area are currently better than at any point in the past ten years, suggests Duncan Wood, head of the Mexico Institute of the Wilson Center in Washington, DC. Given that Mr Trump has complained about Mexican drug-traffickers coming into America, the chances of his undermining the very interactions that aim to keep them out are minimal. […]

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With Trump Victory, Mexico’s Worst Fears are Realized

11/9/2016 The Washington Post

In America’s modern history, few U.S. presidents have come to power as openly hostile to their southern neighbor as Donald Trump. His opening campaign salvos — describing Mexican immigrants as criminals or rapists — seemed almost tame by the time he clinched victory, after so many threats to cut off jobs going to Mexico, deport millions of unauthorized immigrants and build a wall on the border.

His victory stunned, saddened and worried Mexicans, forcing the country’s highest government officials Wednesday morning to call for calm and pledge to work with the United States. The wave of national anxiety sent financial markets here into turmoil as a new, uncertain era in relations with the United States began.

[…] “I think there will be some tinkering with the U.S. approach to international trade, but I don’t see wholesale reversal of U.S. trade policies. There’s too much at stake here, and any change on that scale would take years and years,” said Duncan Wood, director of the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars in Washington. “I think we’re looking at the beginnings of a conversation about where we want to be as a country in our international trade relationships. So we’re moving away from a model of free trade and back to a paradigm of managed trade.” […]

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Mexicans come to grips with U.S. President Trump as peso falls and fears of wall grow

11/09/16 The Dallas Morning News

NOGALES, Mexico — For residents atop the hills of Sonora, the fence that separates the United States and Mexico became more real.

“Why lie? I’m a bit more anxious than yesterday,” said Reinaldo Olvera, 48, as he crossed back into the state of Sonora after visiting relatives in Arizona, a day after Tuesday’s historic U.S. presidential election. “I looked at that fence and imagined it taller, thicker and I just said a prayer: ‘God bless us.’ “

Probably no other country had more in stake in Tuesday’s presidential election than Mexico, with its 2,000-mile border with the U.S.

For Mexico, Long List of Dangers Accompany Trump Presidency

11/10/16 Bloomberg

Donald Trump’s unexpected triumph in U.S. elections portends a very different reality for Mexico and its companies.

Mexico was transformed by the North American Free Trade Agreement that Trump has threatened to rip up. The country now sells about 80 percent of its exports to the U.S., and its companies are more deeply entwined with the world’s largest economy than those of any other developing nation. Some derive more than half their revenue from the U.S., while others own plants or stores in U.S. states.

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