Backing for Mexico’s leader hits lowest ebb after security setbacks: poll


11/08/19 – Reuters

By Dave Graham

Support for Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has slipped to its lowest level since he took office nearly a year ago, dragged down by security lapses, a tracking poll showed on Friday.

The daily survey by polling firm Consulta Mitofsky showed Lopez Obrador’s approval rating at 59.8%, having suffered a progressive decline since the government’s abortive attempt to capture a son of kingpin Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman on Oct. 17.

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Ordinary Opinions of Everyday Mexicans: Polling from the 1940s-2012

By Roderic Ai Camp, Mexico Institute Advisory Board Member
April 2015


The evolution of the importance of public opinion in Mexico is intertwined with the emphasis of scholars, both foreign and Mexican, introducing survey research techniques. These efforts became more common in the 1960s and 1970s, but became increasingly significant in the 1980s, when major newspapers and other publications begin to sponsor wide-ranging public opinion polls. Public opinion polls played a critical role in Mexico’s democratic political transition during the 1980s and 1990s, informing ordinary Mexicans about how their peers viewed candidates and important policy issues, while simultaneously allowing citizens, for the first time, to assess a potential candidate’s likelihood of winning an election before the vote, while also confirming actual election outcomes through exit polls. Polling data reveal changing social, religious, economic, and political attitudes among Mexicans over time, revealing the importance of both traditional and contemporary values in explaining citizen behavior.

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New: The Mexico Institute’s 2015 Elections Guide

2015Elections_LargeOn June 7th 2015, Mexicans will take to the polls to elect a new cohort of federal deputies. This new generation of politicians will be the first deputies who are eligible for re-election since the Porfiriato system broke apart with the Mexican revolution.   In 2018, federal legislators will be allowed to stand for re-election for up to a total of 12 years, providing a unique opportunity to build caucuses within the congress and hopefully develop a more professional legislative support staff.

In addition to the 500 federal deputies, Mexico will elect 17 state-level legislatures, 9 governors, and more than 300 mayors. This year´s election is also, of course, a litmus test of public opinion regarding the PRI government of President Enrique Peña Nieto. Much has been made of the President´s low public approval rating, but his party remains the most popular in the eyes of the Mexican electorate, with around 32% in a recent poll. If one adds in the support for the PRI´s coalition partner Green Party, that figure quickly approaches 40%, potentially sufficient to give the governing coalition another majority in the Chamber of Deputies.

The Wilson Center´s Mexico Institute is marking this historic election by launching a new web resource that brings the latest polling numbers, analysis and opinion to our readers. The Mexico Institute’s 2015 Elections Guide will be updated daily and will provide a one-stop shop for English language information on the vote.

We hope you enjoy the new resource, and please send us your comments and suggestions so that we can improve the service.

Duncan Wood

Visit the Mexico Institute’s 2015 Elections Guide

NEW PUBLICATION: Violence and Citizen Participation in Mexico: From the Polls to the Streets

By Sandra Ley

Resilient Communities Series15How do citizens cope politically with violence? In the face of rising insecurity, Mexican citizens, particularly victims, have poured into the streets to demand an end to violence and ask for peace and justice. However, as organized crime groups attempt to influence local elections and target political candidates and public officials, citizens have not felt equally encouraged to cast ballots on election day.

Elections in Mexico, as well as in other Latin American countries such as Brazil and Guatemala, have been marked by criminal violence. Voters, public officials, and candidates alike have been threatened or attacked by organized crime groups. It is, therefore, important to examine how violence shapes various forms of participation. This paper seeks to provide a broad view of political participation in the midst of Mexico’s current security crisis, with the goal of understanding the effects of violence on civic activism.

This paper is a continuation of the series Building Resilient Communities in Mexico: Civic Responses to Crime and Violence, a multiyear effort by the Mexico Institute at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and the Justice in Mexico Project at the University of San Diego to analyze the obstacles to and opportunities for improving citizen security in Mexico.

Read the publication here…

According to his own poll, AMLO is 1.4% ahead of Enrique Pena Nieto [in Spanish]

Animal Politico, 6/20/2012

AMLO’s campaign released numbers from a poll which they took themselves which show AMLO ahead with 27.8% of the vote, Enrique Peña Nieto with 26.4% of the vote and Josefina Vázquez Mota with 18.4%  of the vote.  They pollsters asked the participants who they would vote for if they had to vote on that very day.

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The mega payoff of increased immigration is lost on the polls

The Washington Post, 9/25/2010

I have a plan that will raise wages, lower prices, increase the nation’s stock of scientists and engineers, and maybe even create the next Google. Better yet, this plan won’t cost the government a dime. In fact, it’ll save money. A lot of money. But few politicians are going to want to touch it.

Here’s the plan: More immigration. A pathway to legal status for undocumented immigrants. And a recognition that immigration policy is economic policy and needs to be thought of as such.

See what I meant about politicians not liking it?

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New Poll on Calderón’s Performance (in Spanish)

413px-Felipe_Calderon_sin_fondo_iConsulta Mitofsky, 8/31/2009

While achieving an approval rating of 62 percent and his fourth consecutive quarter with an approval rating above 60 percent, President Calderón suffered his third worst decline in approval ratings this quarter since assuming office. For the second consecutive quarter, his disapproval ratings increased, rising to 35 percent. Comparatively, Calderón’s approval ratings are consistent with the last four presidents at this point in their terms, who had approval ratings of 60 percent or higher.

Regionally, approval ratings in the north fell, while el Bajío is the most favorable to Calderón. Approval ratings decreased amongst all age groups. Social-economically, support in the high social-economic bracket increased, but declined in the lowest brackets. Regarding specific areas of Calderon’s presidency, participants were most favorable to his combating crime initiatives. Other areas such as employment, poverty reduction, protection of migrants, and inflation generate approval ratings of less than 50 percent.

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Economic Downturn Could Bolster US Immigration Overhaul

Wall Street Journal, 6/2/2009

migrants1Tough economic times may be a boon for supporters of a broad overhaul of the nation’s immigration policies, according to pollsters who are testing the waters ahead of an upcoming White House summit on immigration.

“If anything, the economic climate has actually improved the environment for immigration reform, at least as far as the public is concerned,” said Celinda Lake, who heads Lake Research Partners. A recent survey by Benenson Strategy Group showed that 71% of likely voters think illegal immigrants should take steps to become legal taxpayers.

The White House summit on immigration is slated for next week.

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Survey: 2009 elections

GEA-ISA, Noviembre 2008
Source: GEA-ISA, Noviembre 2008

If the midterm elections were to take place today, the PRI would win more voters than the PAN or the PRD, according to the most recent GEA-ISA poll.

The question asks, “If you were to vote right now for your federal deputy, which political party would you vote for?”