Mexico braces for Trump administration’s assault on Nafta

12/22/2016 Financial Times 

nafta (2)Despite a good few weeks for Mexico — a successful oil auction; a $1.3bn investment by retailer Walmart; and a bond issue from state oil company Pemex that was six times oversubscribed — a dark, Donald Trump-shaped cloud is looming.

The US president-elect has vowed to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement, or Nafta, that has turned its neighbour into a car, computer, TV and aerospace manufacturing powerhouse. The threat is a crackdown on reshoring to cheap destinations such as Mexico by slapping a 35 per cent tariff on goods imported back into the US by companies that shift jobs or plants abroad.

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Why Leaving NAFTA Would Hurt Tennessee

12/15/2016 The Tennessean

By Mexico Institute Advisory Board Member Lawrence Harrington

flags 3 countriesOpposition to the North American Free Trade Agreement with Mexico was a cornerstone of Donald Trump’s campaign.

Canceling NAFTA and imposing tariffs on Mexican imports is one of the few actions President Trump can take without congressional approval.  Under the agreement he only needs to give Mexico six months’ notice to cancel the agreement. Using emergency powers, the president could then in all likelihood impose tariffs on Mexican imports. Trump mentioned a 35 percent tariff on certain Mexican goods during the campaign.

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Mexico and U.S. executives to share data to make case for free trade

Mexican and U.S. business leaders will share information on cross-border economic integration as they seek to build a case for free trade under the government of President-elect Donald Trump, a top industry group said on Wednesday.

During a two-day meeting in Mexico City, the executives agreed to share data on trade, including the geographic areas where exports and imports have generated jobs, said Juan Pablo Castañon, president of Mexican group Consejo Coordinador Empresarial (CCE).

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Giuliani made millions consulting for Mexico’s most anti-Trump politician

11/29/16 The Washington Post

186px-rudy_giulianiFormer New York mayor Rudy Giuliani was paid millions under a contract arranged by a Mexican politician who is likely to run for president of Mexico in 2018 on an anti-Trump, Mexico-first platform. That could be a conflict of interest if Giuliani is named secretary of state and tasked with renegotiating NAFTA and trying to get Mexico to pay for a border wall.

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With an unfriendly neighbour, Mexico needs to strengthen itself

The Economist 11/26/16 

us mex flagALMOST 25 years ago a Mexican president, Carlos Salinas, took a historic decision. He decreed that his country’s future lay in setting aside its fear and resentment of its mighty neighbour to the north and embracing economic integration with the United States through the North American Free-Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The agreement underpinned the modernisation of part of Mexico’s economy. So the imminent arrival in the White House of Donald Trump, a critic of NAFTA who threatens to build a migrant-blocking wall between the two countries, looks like a disaster for Mexico.

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Mexico’s Options in a Trump Trade War

11/20/16 The Wall Street Journal

mexico cityIf the sharp selloff of the Mexican peso after the Nov. 8 election of Donald Trump were set to music it might sound like a funeral dirge, the dearly departed being the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta). The peso has fallen to an all-time low of more than 20 to the dollar, and on Thursday the Bank of Mexico raised its benchmark interest rate to stem the bleeding.

Mexico investors are worried that Mr. Trump might actually believe—as he argued in his campaign—that U.S. productivity growth and job creation depend on renegotiating Nafta to discourage U.S. investments south of the border. But Mexico won’t easily yield to a new deal that limits its access to U.S. markets in order to make it less attractive as a destination for capital.

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Canada manufacturers put U.S. ahead of Mexico if Trump ends NAFTA

11/17/16 Reuters

TrudeauCanadian manufacturers want their access to the U.S. market protected at all costs if Canada renegotiates the NAFTA trade deal with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, even if that means losing the trilateral partnership with Mexico.

Amid fears a Trump administration will tear up the North American Free Trade Agreement, the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters group is lobbying Canada’s Liberal government to prioritize the U.S.-Canada trade relationship, saying a bilateral side deal with Mexico could be worked out separately.

“We spoke to our members, and based on trade stats alone, the priority has to be the U.S. market,” said Mathew Wilson, senior vice president at the CME, which represents some 10,000 manufacturers.

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