US-Mexico relations could get even more complicated with a Lopez Obrador victory

02/06/2018 CNBC

Source: Eneas De Troya, Flickr

The already-tense relations between Mexico and the United States could get a lot trickier depending on how the upcoming Mexican presidential election unfolds.

The frontrunner for the presidency is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a left-leaning politician who has repeatedly railed against President Donald Trump and his policies. Lopez Obrador is polling at 27.1 percent as of Feb. 18, leading a field of six candidates, according to Consulta Mitofsky, a polling firm in Mexico.

The campaign season for the July 1 election officially kicks off in late March.

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With Elections to Win, One Nafta Team May Prefer to Keep Talking

02/23/2018 Bloomberg

Few people are cheering the prospect of several more months of Nafta talks. Mexico’s ruling party may be among that small group.

The country is cranking into campaign mode at the same time as it prepares to host the latest round of trade wrangling next week. That means Mexican negotiators have a kind of dual mandate. They have to pursue the best outcome for the nation, while keeping one eye out for their bosses in the governing PRI, which is seeking to hang on to the presidency in July’s election.

And analysts say the party’s interests won’t be best served by a Nafta deal before the vote. Renegotiation was a U.S. idea in the first place, and President Donald Trump has framed the process as a zero-sum game. Anything he’s OK with is likely to be presented as a defeat for the others.

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