Duncan Wood, Center for Strategic and International Studies, 6/7/2011
With one month to go before the most anticipated gubernatorial election of 2011 – in the State of Mexico (Edomex) – a number of important trends can be noted in both the parties and in public opinion. First, we should note that the PRI candidate, Eruviel Ávila Villegas, remains a long way ahead of his rivals in the opinion polls. According to a Reforma poll at the end of May, Ávila Villegas has 45 percent of popular support. Although campaigning is now firmly underway, Alejandro Encinas (PRD) has not been able to make a significant impact on public opinion (registering 17 percent in the polls), despite the full and united support of his party.
Luis Bravo Mena (PAN) has barely registered as a viable candidate, and currently stands at 12 percent in the polls, having slipped 4 percent since March. This has caused widespread consternation in his party and has led to the announcement from party headquarters that his campaign will be “re-launched” on June 4. Even Los Pinos has expressed concern that Bravo Mena needs intense support from the party machine to avoid a humiliating defeat. The possibility is now beginning to emerge that the PAN will ultimately withdraw its candidate to try to galvanize support in the State for Encinas in an attempt to inflict further electoral damage on the PRI.
Although its candidate trails in the polls, the campaign has had a galvanizing effect on the PRD.