Mexico to Overtake Russia by 2050 as U.S. Slides


5504964078_df874cacb5_zMexico and Indonesia will displace Russia and Italy among the top 10 economies in just 35 years’ time, with China, the U.S. and India taking the top three slots, according to forecasts by the Economist Intelligence Unit.

The world’s most populous nation will overtake the U.S. as early as 2026 in nominal gross domestic product in dollar terms.  India and China will each be richer than the next five nations — Indonesia, Germany, Japan, Brazil, and the U.K. — combined, representing “a scale of wealth relative to the rest of the top ten that is unique in recorded history,” according to the EIU.

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Upcoming Event! Economics and Transparency: Meeting the Challenge in the Americas

justice - gavel and bookWHEN: Tuesday, June 9, 1:30-5:00pm

WHERE: 6th Floor Auditorium, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars


Throughout much of Latin America, the “golden years” of economic growth during the last decade’s commodity boom have given way to economic decline or stagnation. At the same time, a mobilized citizenry is demanding better government performance. These two factors have focused unprecedented attention on rule of law deficits and official corruption. Meanwhile, relations among countries of the hemisphere have grown more complex. As much as the region has welcomed the normalization of U.S.-Cuban relations, the options for international insertion now extend far beyond the Western Hemisphere.

1:30-1:45pm: Keynote Remarks
The Honorable Juan Gabriel Valdés, Ambassador of Chile to the United States

1:45-3:15pm: Combatting Corruption and Building the Rule of Law
Alejandro Ponce, World Justice Project

Carlos Fernando Chamorro, Confidencial, Nicaragua

Eduardo Bohórquez, Transparencia Mexicana

Paulo Sotero, Director, Brazil Institute, Wilson Center

Daniel Zovatto, IDEA Internacional, Costa Rica

3:15-4:30pm: Hemispheric Relations in Leaner Times: What is the Path Forward?
Ambassador Gil Rishchynski, Ambassador of Canada to the United Nations

Roberto Russell, Universidad Torcuato di Tella, Argentina

Richard Feinberg, University of California, San Diego

Maria Hermínia Tavares de Almeida, Centro Brasileiro de Analise e Planejamento, São Paulo

Cynthia Arnson, Director, Latin American Program, Wilson Center

4:30-5:00pm: Closing Keynote
The Honorable Roberta Jacobson, Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs

*There will be a live webcast of this event. 

Mexico Gov’t Still Eyeing 5 pct Growth in 2018

Fox News Latino, 3/23/2015

pesoMexican Finance Secretary Luis Videgaray said the government still expects a series of recent economic reforms will lead to growth of 5 percent by the end of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s six-year term in 2018.

“I don’t have the slightest doubt that Mexico will have sustainable average growth rates in that range,” Videgaray said in an interview published Monday by El Universal newspaper.

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Drug Violence Crimping Economic Growth, Mexican Central Banker Says

10/20/14 Bloomberg 

mexico law enforcementMexican central bank Governor Agustin Carstens said drug-related violence is damping growth, hours after federal police took over security in 13 towns following the alleged massacre of students in Guerrero state. “There is no doubt that violence has been a negative factor,” Carstens, 56, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s Mexico City office. “This is a problem that Mexico has been tackling for the last few years. It’s a deeply-rooted problem.” Carstens cited a central bank analyst survey published Oct. 3 that showed public security problems as the top obstacle to Mexico’s economic expansion, followed by fiscal policy, weak domestic demand and international financial instability.

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Mexico Central Bank Lowers Growth Forecast on Weak Recovery

08/13/14 Bloomberg

banco de mexicoMexican policy makers lowered their 2014 growth forecast for the third time as Latin America’s second-largest economy struggles to bolster consumer sentiment and spending.

Gross domestic product will rise 2 percent to 2.8 percent this year, down from the previous forecast of 2.3 percent to 3.3 percent, the central bank said in its quarterly inflation report today. The forecast for next year was left unchanged at 3.2 percent to 4.2 percent.

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Exports spur economic growth in Mexico

07/31/14 Fox News Latino

Export Or Import DirectionsMexico’s economic growth accelerated in the second quarter, thanks to a 5.4 percent rise in non-petroleum exports, Finance Secretariat Economic Planning Unit chief Ernesto Revilla said.

Exports “are really performing with a very important velocity,” Revilla said.

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Headlines from Mexico


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  1. Mexico denies asylum to migrant children. In 2013, only 50 out of the 9,893 unaccompanied minors detained could obtain shelter in the country. Approximately a thousand of them have families in Mexico, and the rest, approximately 8,350, have been deported. Activists of several NGOs have pointed out that the legal process the minors have to pass through always favors deportation rather than a detailed analysis of their reasons for migrating. Similarly, minors are detained in installations with low levels of hygiene and are not given the proper care.

Read more from El Universal…

  1. Economic resources are allocated to the neighborhoods from which the violence arises around the country. According to the Secretary of the Interior, neighborhoods with high percentages of young population, early pregnancy, high school dropout rate, and high incidence of crimes, are in risk of developing criminal behavior. For these reasons, the federal government is giving 184 million dollars to 234 of the most violent neighborhoods around the country in order to implement 16 social programs seeking to reverse their reality. Among the entities that have received more resources are Michoacán, Chihuahua, and Guerrero.

Read more from Excelsior…

  1. Final stretch of the Energy Reform. Secondary legislation discussions will begin this week after the Senate completed approval of the bulk of the legislation and passed it to the lower house of Congress. The bill contains 7 blocks which, if approved, will radically change the energy sector opening the market to national and foreign private investment. Government will absorb labor liabilities in Pemex and CFE, and the collective agreement for employees will be modified. Both parties PAN and PRI believe the energy reform represents the greatest opportunity to transform the country. PRD argues that the energy reform enables the exploitation of the country’s resources and enrichment of transnational corporations.

Read more from El Universal…

  1. Economic growth and the reforms in Mexico. On one side, the Assistant Director in the Western Hemisphere Department of the International Monetary Fund, Robert Rennhack, assured that Mexico has achieved what very few countries have done by passing major reforms in various sectors through the will of political actors rather than through the pressure of economic or monetary crisis. At the same time, he forecasted that these reforms will have a positive impact  on the Mexican economy, especially investments derived from the energy reform. On the other side, the Center for Economic Studies of the Private Sector in Mexico, adjusted downwards its growth forecast for the Mexican economy in 2014 by placing it at 2.5 percent. Among the main reasons, they highlight weak domestic market and a loss of purchasing power.

Read more from El Universal and La Jornada…