Mexico’s Economic Recovery Is Losing Momentum After Strong Rebound

10/14/2020

Source: Fitch Ratings

Fitch Ratings-London/New York-14 October 2020: The latest data for Mexico suggest that the pace of economic recovery is slowing after a sharp rebound in June. Robust incoming data in June and July indicate that growth in 3Q20 could be higher than the 6.5% qoq projected in Fitch Ratings’ September Global Economic Outlook, but there are clear signs that momentum is slowing, according to our economics team’s latest dashboard.

The sharp rebound in industrial production in June, followed by slower growth in July and August, imply that industrial production could rise by more than 21.7% qoq in 3Q20. Yet, manufacturing output grew by a meagre 0.8% mom in August, after a strong pick-up in the previous two months, suggesting that most of the rebound has passed. Survey indicators were still in contraction territory throughout 3Q20, pointing to a deceleration ahead.

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