Nafta’s Dead. Long Live Nafta. A Look at Most Likely Outcomes

01/11/2018 Bloomberg

nafta_logo1Markets shuddered on signs the U.S. may be preparing to withdraw from Nafta. But even if President Donald Trump serves notice of a pullout, the trade deal could survive.

Under the accord, the U.S., Canada or Mexico can withdraw after giving six-months’ notice. Scant progress has been made on the thorniest issues ahead of the sixth round this month in Montreal, fueling speculation Trump will follow through on his threat to walk away.

Investors are looking to any clues. Canada’s dollar and Mexico’s peso dropped and Mexican stocks retreated following reports on Wednesday that Canada sees an increasing chance the U.S. will exit Nafta. The White House later said its policy hasn’t changed.

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