Huffington Post, 8/01/2012
Despite a turbulent post-electoral environment which has been highlighted by accusations of fraud and intensifying social unrest, Mexico’s markets have reacted rather favorably to the victory of Enrique Peña Nieto of the PRI on July 1st. Under the “consensus view” (which markets ultimately reflect), Mexico’s political environment has never been better for achieving the structural reforms that the country needs, and its institutional maturity ensures that any attempt by the PRI to return to its old authoritarian ways would be kept in check. But what the consensus view ignores, unfortunately, is that history doesn’t always take the middle ground. Knowing this, what would a Peña Nieto presidency look like in the best and worst of all possible worlds?