Bank of Mexico Caught Between Stronger Peso, Rising Inflation

Fox Business, 4/24/13

Economists say Mexican policy makers have limited options to address those issues at the moment, especially following their decision in March to slash the country’s benchmark lending rate by half a percentage point to 4%, the country’s first rate move since 2009. That’s left the central bank with less room to maneuver at its Thursday meeting.

On the one hand, concern about a slowdown in growth coupled with a 6.7% surge in the peso against the U.S. dollar since the start of the year might suggest that another rate cut is warranted. Such a move might help spur consumer spending and relieve pressure on the exchange rate from foreign investors searching for higher yields.

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Mexico annual inflation eases below central bank ceiling

Reuters, 1/9/2013

Mexican consumer prices in December dipped below the central bank’s 4 percent tolerance ceiling for the first time in seven months, further diminishing chances of an interest rate rise any time soon. Mexican consumer prices rose 3.57 percent in the year through December, slower than November’s 4.18 percent and below expectations in a Reuters poll for 3.71 percent, the national statistics agency said on Wednesday. Consumer prices picked up 0.23 percent last month, down from the 0.68 percent rate reported in November and below the 0.34 percent expected in a Reuters poll.

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Mexico inflation hits 2-1/2-year high in early Sept

Reuters, 9/24/12

Mexican inflation accelerated in early September to its fastest rate in 2-1/2 years, but the pick-up was less than expected by analysts and most policymakers have said they expect the spike to be temporary. Annual inflation accelerated to 4.73 percent in early September from 4.57 percent for the full month of August, driven by rising egg, chicken and tomato prices as well as higher education costs, the national statistics agency said on Monday.The rate was less than the 4.82 percent rate projected in a Reuters poll, reflecting a surprise drop in fixed-line telephone rates, analysts said.Nonetheless, the annual inflation rate marked its highest level since March 2010, and it was the fourth month it topped the central bank’s 4 percent limit for acceptable price increases.

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DATA SNAP: Mexico’s Consumer Prices Rise In October

The Wall Street Journal, 11/9/11

Consumer prices in Mexico rose in pace with market expectations in October as prices jumped for electricity after the end of the government’s summer subsidies, National Statistics Institute Inegi said Wednesday. The consumer price index rose 0.67% last month, while the core index, which excludes energy and fresh produce, rose 0.26% on higher prices for merchandise, services, food, beverage and tobacco.

That nudged the annual rate up to 3.20% from 3.14% at the end of September, and the annual rate for the core index to 3.19% from 3.12%. Analysts were expecting inflation to have risen 0.70% last month and for core inflation to have risen 0.28%, according to the median estimate of 12 economists consulted by Dow Jones Newswires.

Inegi said prices rose a bit last month for agricultural goods, particularly seafood, and that energy prices soared 5.02%. Inflation as measured by the CPI remains broadly in line with the Bank of Mexico’s 3% annual target, give or take a percentage point, which could encourage the central bank to cut rates at its next monetary policy meeting Dec. 2.

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Mexico’s Carstens: Committed To Keeping Down Inflation

Wall Street Journal, 12/15/09

MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)–Former Mexican Finance Minister Agustin Carstens said Monday he would be committed to keeping down inflation if ratified by the Senate as the next governor of the Bank of Mexico.

In a hearing with a Senate committee, Carstens rejected the notion that the central bank would have to be easy on inflation to promote economic growth.

“Historical evidence, both national and international … shows that in periods of high inflation growth is depressed, and in those periods when there has been greater sustained economic growth, I stress sustained, have also been those with the lowest inflation,” Carstens said.

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Mexico Annual Inflation Slows Below 4% on Peso, Food

Bloomberg, 12/9/09

Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) — Mexico’s annual inflation slowed to less than 4 percent in November for the first time in almost two years on a strengthening currency and lower costs for fruit and telephone calls.

Consumer prices rose 3.86 percent in November from a year earlier, the central bank said today on its Web site, down from 4.5 percent in October. Price rose 0.52 percent in November from October, the bank said. Both results were in-line with Bloomberg surveys.

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Mexico’s Central Bank Raises 2010 Inflation Forecasts

Bloomberg, 12/3/09

Dec. 2 (Bloomberg) — Mexico’s central bank raised its inflation forecasts for 2010 as income, sales and excise tax increases take effect, which may signal policy makers will increase borrowing costs sooner than analysts forecast.

The bank boosted its inflation forecast for the end of 2010 by as much as 1.75 percentage points. Consumer prices will rise as much as 5.25 percent in the third and fourth quarters of next year, exceeding policy makers’ inflation target of 3 percent, the bank said in a report published on its Web site.

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At 4.9%, Mexico’s Rate of Inflation is Rising in the OECD (in Spanish)

El Economista, 11/4/09

In September, Mexico was one of four countries with the highest annualized rate of inflation amongst the 30 OECD countries, according to that organization.

The OECD said that annualized consumer prices in the OECD fell 0.3% in September 2009, the same rate as in August, while in a monthly comparison, inflation was 0.2%, similar to the previous month.

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Mexico Prices Increased Less Than Forecast in January

Bloomberg, 2/9/2009

Mexico’s consumer prices rose less than forecast in January amid slowing consumer demand and a government plan to lower energy costs, giving central bank policy makers more room to reduce lending rates.

Prices increased 6.28 percent from a year earlier and 0.23 percent from a month earlier as costs fell for vegetables, electricity and tourist packages, the central bank said.

The government plan to reduce heating gas costs slowed inflation sooner than analysts expected, said Jimena Zuniga, a Latin America economist at Barclays Capital in New York. Today’s report signals inflation may be coming under control, allowing the central bank to further lower the key lending rate this month, she said.

It buys degrees of freedom for the central bank,” said Zuniga, who forecasts policy makers will reduce the rate to 5.25 percent by mid year from 7.75 percent currently.

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Mexico Peso Bonds Advance to Two-Week High on Slowing Inflation

Bloomberg, 1/22/2009

Mexico’s peso bonds rose, pushing benchmark yields to a two-week low, after a central bank report showed inflation in the first half of January slowed more than economists forecast.

Consumer prices in the first half of this month increased 0.15 percent after advancing 0.45 percent in the first half of December, Banco de Mexico said today. Economists had forecast prices would rise 0.23 percent, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

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