Foreign Policy, Robert Looney, 7/16/12
Just when everyone seemed ready to throw in the towel, the economy is showing signs of fulfilling its potential. Mexico grew by 4.0 percent in 2011, and the IMF is forecasting gains of 3.6 percent for 2012 — hardly stellar for an emerging-market economy, but better than Brazil, with corresponding rates of 2.7 percent and 3.0 percent. What’s more, Mexico has managed to grow in spite of the surge of drug-related violence in key industrial zones…
It’s tempting to attribute Brazil’s economic successes and Mexico’s lackluster performance to their respective approaches to economic policy. Mexico has worked doggedly to implement the neo-liberal Washington Consensus approach to macroeconomic management — budget discipline, central bank independence, anti-inflationary monetary policy, and pro-market liberalization, including the development of a truly private banking system. In contrast, Brazil has mixed market neo-liberalism with an eclectic, proactive approach to economic policy; its “heterodox” features include a large, partially state-owned banking system with complex, discriminatory rules for credit allocation, and reliance on a witch’s brew of state-led investment strategies aimed at eliminating infrastructure bottlenecks…
While it is fashionable in some quarters to attribute Brazil’s higher growth rates to the country’s pragmatic approach to economic management and Mexico’s adherence to the neo-liberal gospel, I believe Mexico’s economic performance is largely a product of the demand for Mexican products by the U.S. The numbers certainly support this view: The IMF found a high correlation between Mexican exports and GDP, with changes in exports statistically accounting for 86 percent of the variations in the country’s growth rate between 1996 and 2010.
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