Mexico Central Bank Lowers Growth Forecast on Weak Recovery

August 13, 2014

08/13/14 Bloomberg

banco de mexicoMexican policy makers lowered their 2014 growth forecast for the third time as Latin America’s second-largest economy struggles to bolster consumer sentiment and spending.

Gross domestic product will rise 2 percent to 2.8 percent this year, down from the previous forecast of 2.3 percent to 3.3 percent, the central bank said in its quarterly inflation report today. The forecast for next year was left unchanged at 3.2 percent to 4.2 percent.

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Exports spur economic growth in Mexico

July 31, 2014

07/31/14 Fox News Latino

Export Or Import DirectionsMexico’s economic growth accelerated in the second quarter, thanks to a 5.4 percent rise in non-petroleum exports, Finance Secretariat Economic Planning Unit chief Ernesto Revilla said.

Exports “are really performing with a very important velocity,” Revilla said.

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Headlines from Mexico

July 28, 2014

 

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  1. Mexico denies asylum to migrant children. In 2013, only 50 out of the 9,893 unaccompanied minors detained could obtain shelter in the country. Approximately a thousand of them have families in Mexico, and the rest, approximately 8,350, have been deported. Activists of several NGOs have pointed out that the legal process the minors have to pass through always favors deportation rather than a detailed analysis of their reasons for migrating. Similarly, minors are detained in installations with low levels of hygiene and are not given the proper care.

Read more from El Universal…

  1. Economic resources are allocated to the neighborhoods from which the violence arises around the country. According to the Secretary of the Interior, neighborhoods with high percentages of young population, early pregnancy, high school dropout rate, and high incidence of crimes, are in risk of developing criminal behavior. For these reasons, the federal government is giving 184 million dollars to 234 of the most violent neighborhoods around the country in order to implement 16 social programs seeking to reverse their reality. Among the entities that have received more resources are Michoacán, Chihuahua, and Guerrero.

Read more from Excelsior…

  1. Final stretch of the Energy Reform. Secondary legislation discussions will begin this week after the Senate completed approval of the bulk of the legislation and passed it to the lower house of Congress. The bill contains 7 blocks which, if approved, will radically change the energy sector opening the market to national and foreign private investment. Government will absorb labor liabilities in Pemex and CFE, and the collective agreement for employees will be modified. Both parties PAN and PRI believe the energy reform represents the greatest opportunity to transform the country. PRD argues that the energy reform enables the exploitation of the country’s resources and enrichment of transnational corporations.

Read more from El Universal…

  1. Economic growth and the reforms in Mexico. On one side, the Assistant Director in the Western Hemisphere Department of the International Monetary Fund, Robert Rennhack, assured that Mexico has achieved what very few countries have done by passing major reforms in various sectors through the will of political actors rather than through the pressure of economic or monetary crisis. At the same time, he forecasted that these reforms will have a positive impact  on the Mexican economy, especially investments derived from the energy reform. On the other side, the Center for Economic Studies of the Private Sector in Mexico, adjusted downwards its growth forecast for the Mexican economy in 2014 by placing it at 2.5 percent. Among the main reasons, they highlight weak domestic market and a loss of purchasing power.

Read more from El Universal and La Jornada…


What’s Driving Mexico’s Growth?

July 23, 2014

07/22/14 Forbes

shutterstock_102739391Mexico’s increasing purchasing power, as well as key reforms passed by recently elected President Enrique Peña Nieto, have contributed to what economic experts at HSBC say may become the world’s eighth-biggest economy by 2050. While it hasn’t received the recent media attention of other emerging economies like Brazil or India, Mexico has quietly positioned itself to be a major economic force in the long term.

One of the primary drivers of Mexico’s recent growth comes from the manufacturing sector. Merchandise goods rose three percent in 2013, a modest but encouraging gain, and one that is expected to improve over the remainder of 2014. Global economic recovery is expected to help Mexico continue its own improvement, especially in the appliances industry, which is expected to grow significantly in the near future. The Boston Consulting Group expressed substantial confidence in Mexico’s manufacturing, noting that manufacturing could add between $20 billion and $60 billion to Mexico’s economy through 2018.

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Mexican Economy Sees Glimpse of Recovery

June 26, 2014

06/25/14 The Wall Street Journal

financeAfter many months of dreary economic news from Mexico, upbeat April data buoyed hopes that the economy is finally on the path toward improved growth.

The government of President Enrique Peña Nieto and some economists welcomed the broad 1.3% expansion in the global index of economic activity in April, which marked the best monthly performance since November 2012, bolstered by growth in services, construction and industry.

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Mexico lurches between crisis and reform

June 11, 2014

06/10/14 Deutsche Welle

Mexican pesoMexico’s economy is stuck in a rut that it won’t be able to climb out of easily. Growth forecasts have again been revised downwards – but the government says the economy will boom once reforms are implemented.

Mexican Finance Secretary Luis Videgaray Caso looked a bit tense during his appearance before the executives at BBVA Bancomer, one of the country’s main banks. He had intended to radiate optimism. But Mexico’s economy simply doesn’t seem to be able to get back on track, and all the world wants to know: What’s going on?

Last week, the government of President Enrique Peña Nieto revised its growth forecasts downward, from 3.9 to 2.7 percent. Earlier, the central bank had released figures that predicted lower economic growth than had been expected.

Although the Mexican economy actually grew last year – even if by just 1.1 percent – the numbers for the current year are disappointing compared to those of other Latin American countries such as Peru and Colombia.

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Mexico’s economy: Jam mañana

May 22, 2014

Mexico CityThe Economist, 05/24/14

So far this year Mexico’s government has resembled one of the country’s many devotees of St Jude, patron saint of lost causes. It has doggedly stuck to a 3.9% 2014 growth forecast, even though its main export market, the United States, has been sluggish, and the twin pillars of its domestic economy—buying and building—have fared even worse.

On May 21st the central bank revised its growth prediction down to 2.3-3.3%, from 3-4% previously. The government was expected finally to follow suit on May 23rd, when first-quarter GDP figures were due to be released. Even so, officials are convinced that within months the benefits of its plans to modernise the economy will start to show up in the numbers.

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What Does Mexico’s Oil Industry Reform Mean For Investors?

December 16, 2013

Forbes, 12/16/2013

Ancient Mayan pyramid, KukulcanLast week Mexico’s Congress approved a bill to end a seven-decade long state oil monopoly. In coming years foreign companies could invest as much as $20 billion a year in Mexico’s oil sector, thanks to new rules that will allow production sharing.

Although the energy reform bill, spearheaded by Mexico’s President Enrique Peña Nieto during his first year in office, has been vociferously opposed by Mexico’s left, the bill has the backing of Peña’s centrist PRI party as well as the right-of-center party of former President Felipe Calderon. Together the PRI and the PAN had enough votes to push the bill through Congress, where it was approved 353-134.

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Mexico’s economy to grow nearly 4 pct in 2014, report says

December 11, 2013

Global Post, 12/9/2013

drawing bar chartMexico’s economy will rebound in 2014 and grow 3.9 percent, compared to the 1.2 percent growth registered in 2013, insurer Credito y Caucion said in a report released Monday. “Mexico will be the exception in a changing pattern of growth in which the advanced markets will grow more while the emerging (markets) will continue leveling off” in 2014, Credito y Caucion said.

The company is a unit of Grupo Atradius, which operates in 45 countries. Mexico’s economy will rebound because of “its unique relationship with the United States,” the destination for nearly 80 percent of Mexican exports, Credito y Caucion said.

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After president’s first year, Mexico still a mess by many measures

December 2, 2013

Los Angeles Times, 12/1/2013

Enrique PeñaNieto 2To President Enrique Peña Nieto’s supporters, his first year in office has been a time of bold promises kept as he pursues an ambitious agenda of reforms designed, in the long term, to bring peace and economic growth to Mexico.

But in the short term, by many measures, his country remains a mess. Though he promised to focus on Mexico’s economic potential, Peña Nieto has presided over an economy that has hardly grown at all. Though he vowed to reduce the kind of violence that affects innocent citizens, his record has been mixed, with kidnappings and extortion rising nationwide even as the number of homicides drops.

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