Mexican Migration Monitor: Mexican Migration Beyond the Downturn and Deportations

10/26/2012, USC Price, Mexican Migration Monitor

Multiple indicators suggest that Mexican migration to the United States has stabilized at reduced levels after absorbing the effects of the Great Recession and toughened U.S. immigration enforcement efforts. The most recent data available show that northbound flows are holding steady with signs of increasing unauthorized migration, while southbound flows are decreasing. The result is that the size of the Mexican-born population in the United States has fully recovered from losses experienced during the recession. Meanwhile, unemployment among those migrants has decreased and labor force participation rates have held steady—a post-recession economic performance slightly better than for U.S. native-born workers. Another sign of recovery comes from an increased flow of remittances to Mexico.

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Rich Countries Respond to the Economic Downturn by Trying to Limit the Flow of Migrants

Photo by Flickr user Woodley Wonder Works

Economist, 7/2/2009

IN THE boom years, migrants picked fruit in southern California’s orange groves, worked on construction sites in Spain and Ireland, designed software in Silicon Valley and toiled in factories all over the rich world. Many will continue to do so, despite the economic downturn. But as unemployment rises in most rich countries, attitudes towards migrants are hardening.

Attacks on Romanians in Northern Ireland and on Indian students in Australia are the most visible and disturbing manifestations of growing xenophobia. In response, many governments are also tightening their migration policies, according to a report published by the OECD on Tuesday June 30th. Governments are reducing quotas for foreign workers and imposing tougher entry requirements on them in an effort to control the flow. Some are even paying existing migrants to go home.

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Cemex Struggles To Lighten Debt Load

Associated Press, 6/18/2009

Strained by $18 billion in debt and uncertainties about refinancing negotiations, Cemex, the third-largest cement producer in the world, could use some of its own product to shore up its foundation after years of aggressive acquisitions.

Cemex ( CX – news – people ) shelled out $15 billion in 2007–at what turned out to be the tail end of the building boom–to buy Rinker, the Australian building materials group. The subsequent collapse of the U.S. housing market eviscerated demand, leaving Cemex struggling to handle the debt it incurred in the deal.

The Mexico-based company has been forced to shed jobs and assets, and it is in its second round of refinancing.

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Economic Downturn Could Bolster US Immigration Overhaul

Wall Street Journal, 6/2/2009

Tough economic times may be a boon for supporters of a broad overhaul of the nation’s immigration policies, according to pollsters who are testing the waters ahead of an upcoming White House summit on immigration.

“If anything, the economic climate has actually improved the environment for immigration reform, at least as far as the public is concerned,” said Celinda Lake, who heads Lake Research Partners. A recent survey by Benenson Strategy Group showed that 71% of likely voters think illegal immigrants should take steps to become legal taxpayers.

The White House summit on immigration is slated for next week.

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Mexico Flu Helps Revive Memories of Tequila Crisis

Bloomberg, 5/18/2009

Finance Minister Agustin Carstens

Mexico’s economy probably contracted the most in 14 years in the first quarter and may shrink more in coming months after the swine flu epidemic, raising the specter of a recession that rivals the so-called Tequila Crisis.

Gross domestic product shrank 8 percent in the first three months of the year as exports to the U.S. plunged, according to the median forecast of 11 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg before the government’s report, which is due May 20.

UBS AG predicts GDP may contract 7 percent in all of 2009, revised from a previous forecast of 4.3 percent.

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New Pew Report: Hispanics and the Economic Downturn: Housing Woes and Remittance Cuts

The Impact of Economic Downturn on Latinos in the U.S.: Worries About Housing Foreclosures

Mark Hugo Lopez, Gretchen Livingston, Rakesh Kochhar, Pew Hispanic Center, 1/08/2009

Like the U.S. population as a whole, Latinos are feeling the sting of the economic downturn. Almost one-in-ten (9%) Latino homeowners say they missed a mortgage payment or were unable to make a full payment and 3% say they received a foreclosure notice in the past year, according to a new national survey of 1,540 Latino adults conducted by the Pew Hispanic Center.

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Economy, Housing Woes Slow Migration, Census Shows

Brookings Institution, 12/24/2008

Miami - Photo by Derek Jensen

Can you name one way that Michigan and Florida are alike? A correct answer would be that both states lost more migrants than they gained last year, among persons moving within the United States. So says the U.S. Census Bureau in its newly released population picture.

No surprise that Michigan lost population in light of the blow to the Big Three automakers and the state’s high unemployment rate. That Florida showed a net loss of migrants is astounding.

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Mexico most exposed to crisis because of proximity to U.S. (in Spanish)

La Jornada, 12/10/2008

Mexico is the country that has the most exposure to the global economic crisis in terms of employment and poverty due to its close relationship with the United States and the impact of the reduction in remittances, exports and tourism, according to a report, Social Panorama of Latin America 2008, by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (CEPAL).

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Some Mexicans leaving US, planning never to return

Denver, CO

Associated Press, 12/15/2008

After going months without a full-time job, Daniel Ramirez has decided it’s time to return to family in Mexico. Vicenta Rodriguez Lopez says she can’t afford to live in Colorado any more because her husband was deported. Roberto Espinoza is going back, too. After 18 years as a mechanic for a General Motors dealership in Denver, his work permit wasn’t renewed and he didn’t want to remain in the country illegally.

All are leaving Colorado in time for Christmas — joining a traditional holiday migration that will number almost 1 million people, says Mexico’s interior ministry. But they have no intention of returning to Colorado, a place that promised prosperity.

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So far, no exodus from US to Mexico

International Herald Tribune, 12/8/2008

Mexico says the U.S. crackdown and economic crisis so far aren’t convincing large numbers of migrants to return home. Last month, the Mexican government said the number of people trying to sneak into the U.S. illegally has dropped 42 percent over the last two years.

Many have assumed that more and more Mexicans would give up on the American dream and return home amid job cuts in the U.S. But Mexico’s undersecretary for North American affairs says there are no signs that is happening.

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