The Wall Street Journal, 10/11/2010
President Felipe Calderón still has two years left in office. But he is already on track to go down in history as having presided over the bloodiest Mexican sexenio since the revolution of 1910. By December, when Mr. Calderón completes his fourth year as president, the national death toll from his war on the drug cartels could reach 30,000.
Statistically speaking, Mexico is a relatively safe place with 12 murders per 100,000 inhabitants in 2009. The trouble is that the violence is concentrated, and according to one economist I talked with here, that’s because the drug-trafficking business is structured much like Colombia’s was in the 1980s and ’90s.
Powerful monopoly suppliers need to control key zones so they can guarantee an army of contract employees. These “ants” carry the drugs over the U.S. border at a limited number of strategic points in small shipments. Without mafia-style terror, the cartel’s domination along the route cannot be maintained.
Mexican law enforcement has been courageous in trying to confront these monopolies, but firepower has not done the job. That’s because this is an economic problem. Lower levels of violence in the U.S., despite widespread availability of drugs, and an improved picture in Colombia, where cocaine still flows, are best explained by competition and the smaller scale of the operators. It wasn’t always that way in Colombia. In Mexico it could also change.
To help Mexico deal with this “antitrust” problem, the U.S. has to recognize that competition in the narcotics sector is preferable to the monopolistic syndicates that threaten the state and could move north. But this would require greater flexibility from U.S. drug warriors.
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