July 11, 2014
07/11/14 Bloomberg Businessweek
Remember in the 1990s when some Cassandras feared the North American Free Trade Agreement would someday help Mexico eclipse car production of its higher-cost rivals north of the border? Two decades later, Mexico is making its move, but against another competitor: Brazil.
The country is poised to overtake South America’s largest nation as the top Latin American automobile producer for the first time in more than a decade. Mexico’s ascent is fueled in part by auto sales running at the fastest pace in almost eight years in the U.S., its largest market. The boom coincides with a slump in Brazilian production through June as its domestic demand cools.
July 7, 2014
Mexico is poised to overtake Brazil as the top Latin American automobile producer for the first time in more than a decade as surging exports to the U.S. spur factory openings and record output.
After nosing ahead of Brazil in the first five months of the year, Mexico is projected to hold its advantage through 2014, for the first full-year lead since 2002, according to consultant IHS Automotive.
Mexico’s ascent is being fueled in part by auto sales running at the fastest pace in almost eight years in the U.S., the country’s largest market. The boom coincides with a slump in Brazilian production through May as domestic demand cools, setting up a shift in leadership of the Latin American industry faster than analysts predicted.
December 6, 2013
Financial Post, 12/4/2013
Both Brazil and Mexico’s traditional and renewable energy sectors are expected to grow, if they can continue to make positive policy reforms and attract the necessary investment. In 2012, Latin America and the Caribbean claimed only 6% of the world’s investment in renewable energy – the majority of which went to Brazil and increasingly Chile – but analysts at the Inter-American Development Bank claim that the region is the “new frontier“ for clean energy investment.
If the region is to live up to these high expectations, its energy-rich countries must raise capital to the tune of $430 billion to fully develop its clean energy resources. They must continue to pass reforms that will make private investment more lucrative, and thus more attractive, to hesitant energy companies – who have the capital and the expertise the region needed to develop their shale and deep-sea reserves, as well as their green energy.
November 21, 2013
The Wall Street Journal, 11/21/2013
Even though Latin America has been a laggard among developing markets this year, some advisers are convinced the resource-rich region is poised for a turnaround.
But instead of investing once again in Brazil–the 800-pound gorilla in the group–contrarian portfolio managers are finding smaller markets in Mexico and Chile as better bets to tap into Latin America’s long-term growth.
October 8, 2013
The Financial Times, 10/07/2013
Guest Post by Larry Brainard of Trusted Sources
On a two-week visit to Brazil and Mexico last month I had an opportunity to test claims that Mexico had leapfrogged Brazil as the most dynamic economy in Latin America. I found that political risk is still the key to each country’s prospects and that a simple answer to who is ahead of whom is unattainable.
In Brazil I found no shortage of pessimism about President Dilma Rousseff’s management of the economy, but I returned home more optimistic because the possibility that Dilma will fail to be re-elected next October is growing. In particular, political dynamics have been upset by the alliance between the environmentalist Marina Silva and Eduardo Campos, governor of Pernambuco state and the president of Brazil’s socialist party.
October 8, 2013
The Christian Science Monitor, 10/07/2013
The US government shutdown is rippling across Latin America, seesawing regional economies as markets and analysts take toll of the immediate and long-term impacts from the crisis in Washington.
Mexico and Brazil, the two largest economies in Latin America, saw their currencies swing in opposite directions last week as the US inched closer to a default. The Mexican peso fell to a month-low on concerns over weakened US demand for Mexican goods, while the Brazilian real rallied on speculation that the shutdown would prolong the US Federal Reserve’s stimulus program that has pumped cheap dollars into emerging markets.
October 3, 2013
The Christian Science Monitor, 10/03/2013
Brazil’s Odebrecht plans to invest $8.1 billion in Mexico’s infrastructure in the next five years (Reuters,FT).
Brazil hasn’t invested much in Mexico previously. Since 1999, Brazilian companies have only invested $1.2 billion total including $61.3 million last year. The Odebrecht, [which works in fields including construction, chemicals, and engineering], investment by itself will be an increase by an order of magnitude in the economic links between the two countries.
So, even as short term economic news about both Mexico and Brazil appears to be pessimistic (confounding the whole Mexico vs Brazil debate), this investment is good news for both and a big bet on each other.
October 3, 2013
Brazilian conglomerate Odebrecht has an $8.1 billion investment plan to expand in Mexico’s petrochemical and infrastructure sectors, the chief executive of its Mexican business said on Wednesday. “We expect strong growth in Mexico in the next few years,” Luis Weyll, chief executive of Odebrecht’s Mexican operation, told Reuters in an interview.
However, Odebrecht SA , which had global revenue of $41 billion last year, has no plans yet to take part in any opening of Mexico’s energy sector, preferring to watch from the sidelines as the government tries to overhaul the oil industry.
September 18, 2013
Miami Herald, 9/18/2013
In simultaneous moves that went almost unnoticed in the rest of the world, Mexico and Brazil passed historic education reforms last week that, if carried out as planned, could help propel Latin America’s biggest countries to the First World in coming decades.
The key question is whether the Mexican and Brazilian people will keep up the pressure on their governments to improve the quality of their educational systems, because politicians will only enforce rules that are opposed by teachers unions if they feel social pressure to do so. Mexico and Brazil’s new education laws are historic, but the battle to achieve world-class education systems is just beginning.
September 13, 2013
A lot has changed south of the U.S. border in the past decade, with countries like Brazil and Mexico seeing their economies expand dramatically on the back of rising imports and improving terms of trade, courtesy of a weaker dollar and an ever hungry China, both literally and metaphorically. Brazil is now a $2.4 trillion economy, the eighth largest in the world, while Mexico’s GDP climbed to $1.8 trillion last year, the twelfth biggest.
Mexico, is where the biggest opportunities arise. Beyond the economic recovery in the U.S., Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto is pushing forth with market friendly reforms that “have significantly changed the country’s GDP potential.” Beyond education reform, fiscal reform, and a reduction in union power, Peña Nieto is putting his weight behind an all-important energy reform that will see state-owned oil giant Pemex open up to foreign investment. Oil production has plummeted as Pemex has failed to make substantial new discoveries, while global firms are increasing output in the U.S. side of the Gulf of Mexico. Shale and other unconventional oil could lead to further riches.