Three Keys to Understand the 2015 Budget Debate in Mexico

December 10, 2014

By Christopher Wilson and Pedro Valenzuela

mexican pesosEach fall, Mexico’s Congress debates the adminstration’s budget proposal. It was sent to Congress by the Peña Nieto administration in September, and a final version must be passed no later than the end of October to authorize revenue streams and by November 15 to detail expenditures. This is the first budget debate since Mexico’s 2013 fiscal reform was implemented, offering an important opportunity to analyze the impact of the tax policy changes on public income, and consequently, also on expenditures. The administration’s proposal represents a real increase of 1.2%, which, according to the government, will provide the funds to implement the structural reforms and fund new infrastructure and social programs. As a result of the increased spending and a dip in petroleum revenue, the government will continue to run a deficit, and Mexico’s public debt will continue to grow. Each of these three issues—tax collection, public expenditure, and the national debt—are explored in this article, all in context of Mexico’s structural reforms and brightening yet somewhat volatile economic prospects.

At the time of publication, the revenue proposal, which must be passed by both houses of congress, had been approved by the Chamber of Deputies and was in committee in the Senate. The Senate is expected to move the bill to the floor and approve the final version during the last week of October. The Chamber of Deputies made moderate changes to the executive proposal, including an increase in the expected exchange rate from 13 to 13.4 pesos per U.S. dollar and a drop in the expected reference price for oil from $82 to $81 dollars per barrel. After the ley de ingresos, or revenue law, is passed, attention will turn to the ley de egresos, the budget of expenditures, which only needs to be approved by simple majority in the lower house.

Read the article here.

This article was also published on A shorter, Spanish version of this article is also available.

Concluye secretario de Economía visita de trabajo a Washington, D.C.

October 15, 2014


people network

El secretario Guajardo sostuvo encuentros con importantes miembros de la comunidad empresarial de Estados Unidos, incluido el Emergency Committee for American Trade (ECAT), que agrupa a expertos en  comercio exterior de Estados Unidos, y con la Cámara de Comercio de Estados Unidos, que reúne a empresas con amplios vínculos comerciales y de inversión en México, con el objetivo de explorar acciones que fomenten la relación bilateral. Asimismo, el Secretario de Economía, ofreció una conferencia en el Woodrow Wilson Center, en donde habló de la transformación del país mediante las reformas estructurales impulsadas por el Presidente Enrique Peña Nieto, mismas que tendrán un impacto directo en la competitividad de México y de toda la región de América del Norte. Igualmente, compartió avances en la agenda México-Estados Unidos, alcanzados a través del Diálogo Económico de Alto Nivel (DEAN), y otros mecanismos y acciones bilaterales que promueven un mayor intercambio comercial y la atracción de inversiones.
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México y Estados Unidos analizan avances del acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico

October 15, 2014

10/14/14 ManzanilloXport

globe - blueAutoridades de México y Estados Unidos analizaron el estado que guarda el proceso de negociaciones del Acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico, en vísperas de la reunión ministerial a celebrarse en Australia, del 25 al 27 de octubre próximo. La Secretaría de Economía informó que su titular, Ildefonso Guajardo, acompañado por el subsecretario de Comercio Exterior, Francisco de Rosenzweig, concluyó una visita de trabajo a la ciudad de Washington, D.C., Estados Unidos.

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Mexico sees U.S.-Japan deal key to Pacific trade pact progress

October 15, 2014

10/14/14 Reuters

shutterstock_138967502Pacific Rim countries negotiating a free trade deal will find it hard to make much progress while the United States and Japan remain at loggerheads over farm exports, Mexico’s economy minister said on Tuesday. During a visit to Washington, Ildefonso Guajardo said U.S.-Japan bilateral talks underway in Japan were key to reaching agreement on other outstanding issues in the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and any agreement would have a domino effect on the rest of the pact.

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Prospects for Improving Canada’s Relations with Mexico

October 6, 2014

9/25/14 Hudson Institute

NAFTAChristopher Sands, Senior Fellow of the Hudson Institute testified in from of the Senate of Canada Committee on Foreign Affairs and International Trade where he addresses why the Canadian relationship with Mexico matters to all three NAFTA countries.

To read his testimony please click here.



Mexico Aims for Agreement on Sugar Exports to U.S.

October 2, 2014

10/01/14 Wall Street Journal 

sugarMexican Economy Minister Ildefonso Guajardo said Wednesday that Mexico is seeking a negotiated settlement to a dispute over Mexican sugar exports to the U.S., but that failure to reach an accord could lead Mexico to take the case to the World Trade Organization. The U.S. government in August imposed preliminary tariffs on Mexican sugar imports following complaints by U.S. sugar growers that the Mexican government subsidizes the domestic industry, allowing Mexico to flood the U.S. market with cheap sugar, harming U.S. producers.

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Pacific Alliance Nations Seek Trade Agenda With Mercosur

September 24, 2014

09/23/14 Bloomberg 

finance-market_dataThe four presidents of Latin America’s $2.1 trillion Pacific Alliance bloc said integration is a tool for fighting inequality and they will seek a common agenda with the Mercosur group, led by Brazil and Argentina. The leaders of Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Chile said closer ties will boost growth that can reduce poverty in what Chilean President Michelle Bachelet called the most unequal region of the world. Pacific Alliance officials plan to meet with Mercosur counterparts in November to discuss areas of agreement, she said yesterday at the Bloomberg Latin America Forum in New York. “We all want economic growth but understand it’s an instrument for development,” Bachelet, 62, said. “We’re focused on integration and amplifying markets.”

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