Election Update: Consulta Mitofsky [In Spanish]

Consulta Mitofsky, 5/15/2012

Last Monday, May 15th, marks the second half of the 90 days in the presidential campaign.

Last week, citizen confidence in the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) did not change: 28% grants it confidence. Election awareness continue to grow as now 84% of the electorate knows the voting date. Eight out of 10 Mexicans consider their vote of importance and after the televised presidential debate, the name of Gabriel Quadri is now being mentioned spontaneously by 4 out of 10 citizens.

In terms of the image of the presidential candidate, negative perceptions of them continue on the rise; except for Quadri’s as he does not generate a negative reaction from the electorate.

As a consequence of the presidential debate, Josefina Vázquez Mota decrease half a point (which sets her with one point less after the debate) and Andrés Manuel López Obrador increases (he rose 1.5 points after the debate). This leaves the voter preferences distributed as follows: Enrique Peña Nieto (3804%), Josefina Vázquez Mota (20.8%), Andrés Manuel López Obrador (19.1%), Gabriel Quadri (1.7%) and 20.0% of non-respondents. These percentages represent the shortest registered distance between the second and third place.

Looking at effective results (discounting the undecided voters), Enrique Peña Nieto registers 48% of voter preference, Josefina Vázquez Mota 26%, Andrés Manuel López Obrador 23.9% and Gabriel Quadri 2.1% (losing some of the initial momentum given to him through the debate).

After analyzing the six public surveys followed by Consulta Mitofsky, Peña Nieto registers 46% of voter preference, Vázquez Mota 25.5%, López Obrador 25% and Quadri 3.5%

Download and read full report here.

The strange case of candidate Fox and president Hyde [In Spanish]

Letras Libres, 05/2012
Ricardo Cayuela Gally

Vicente Fox

In this article, Cayuela Gally remembers the presidential election of 2000, which became exemplary as the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) delivered concise results on time, the leaving president congratulated the winner and the political class in general behaved up to the standards of a society that sought for change.

Vicente Fox appeared agile and attractive in the eyes of the press. He promised to clean up Los Pinos yet proved to be an leader of great ignorance. During his administration, however, he was able to accomplish two important changes: the creation of the Federal Institute for Access to Public Information (IFAI) and of a climate of respect toward freedom of expression. Finally, Mexicans are aware of how much their politicians spend and how they use public funds.

Unfortunately, those two feats do not compensate the negative balance of his six-year term. Fox committed errors that created an enmity with the Mexican middle class. He also let loose the inner working of the corporate system. He was an unrealistic man who thought that his mere presence would suffice in order to bring the Chiapas rebellion to a halt.

In sum, democracy suffered and became polarized in the 2006 elections. Fox was not impartial but rather became a strong advocate for this political party albeit his personal distance with Felipe Calderón.

Read full article here.

The great inherited challenges for Mexico [In Spanish]

Letras Libres, 05/2012
Pamela K. Starr

In this report, Starr evaluates the Calderón administration through its successes and failures. She argues that although President Calderón accomplished various changes in public policy these became eclipsed by the failures of this administration. The limited yet significant changes occurred in the areas of fiscal policy, pensions, energy, an almost universal health coverage and macroeconomic stability in a context of international volatility. On the negative side, however, there remain endemic problems such as the increase in poverty, growing dissatisfaction with democracy and the persistent levels of corruption and impunity. The public’s general perception is that Calderón left the country in a worse state than it was five years ago.

The first two years into the Calderón administration, however, made strides in political reforms. Calderón’s first legislative accomplishment occurred in March of 2007 when he obtained a reform to the pension system for government officials. A second legislative reform dealt with fiscal policy through a legislation that reduced the taxes paid by Pemex. The legislation also wanted to impose a tax upon the workers in the informal sector and create a minimum tax for businesses known as the Impuesto Empresarial a Tasa Única. In the fall of the following year, Congress finally approved a legislation that allowed for limited private investment in Pemex.

AL DÍA: ¿Qué opinan? Firmas del día: 5/16/12

The Mexico Institute, AL DÍA: News and Analysis from the Mexico Institute, 5/16/12

Each morning, through the Mexico Portal feature, “¿Qué opinan? Firmas del día”, we will bring you an assortment of op-ed pieces from five major Mexican dailies: Reforma, El Universal, La Jornada, Excelsior and Milenio. Enjoy!

Cada día, por la entrada titulada, “¿Qué opinan? Firmas del día”, vamos a traerles un surtido de artículos de opinión de cinco periódicos populares de México: Reforma, El Universal, La Jornada, Excelsior y Milenio. ¡Que lo disfruten!

AL DÍA: ¿Qué opinan? Firmas del día: 5/15/12

The Mexico Institute, AL DÍA: News and Analysis from the Mexico Institute, 5/15/12

Each morning, through the Mexico Portal feature, “¿Qué opinan? Firmas del día”, we will bring you an assortment of op-ed pieces from five major Mexican dailies: Reforma, El Universal, La Jornada, Excelsior and Milenio. Enjoy!

Cada día, por la entrada titulada, “¿Qué opinan? Firmas del día”, vamos a traerles un surtido de artículos de opinión de cinco periódicos populares de México: Reforma, El Universal, La Jornada, Excelsior y Milenio. ¡Que lo disfruten!

Mexico’s leading presidential candidate is handsome, popular and still a mystery

The Washington Post, 5/14/12

In his campaign for president, Mexico’s handsome front-runner, Enrique Peña Nieto, looks down from towering billboards with a movie-star smile. “Tu me conoces,” he says. You know me. But the fact is, many don’t.

With the July 1 presidential vote only weeks away, Peña Nieto holds a solid double-digit lead in the polls. But Mexican voters and U.S. observers confess that they do not really know what the candidate stands for. Nor are they sure how he would govern Mexico, a vital trade partner for the United States, Mexico’s ally in the fight against drug cartels. “Do people really know him?” asked independent pollster Roy Campos. “No, but they want to get to know him.”

Disparaged by his opponents as a pretty puppet and telegenic con man, the 45-year-old Peña Nieto is a masterful retail politician who, through message discipline and sophisticated marketing, has made himself the new face of the Institutional Revolutionary Party. Known as the PRI, the autocratic political machine fell from power in 2000 after running Mexico with a blend of corruption and coercion for 71 years.

Read more…

Mexico candidate blames opposition as bodies pile up

Reuters, 5/14/12

The main opposition political party is at the root of the violence engulfing Mexico, ruling party presidential candidate Josefina Vazquez Mota said after one of the worst atrocities in the country’s drug war. Fighting to close a big gap with Enrique Pena Nieto, the front-runner for the July 1 election, Vazquez Mota sharpened her attacks on his Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, saying it had made life easy for brutal drug traffickers in Mexico.

Support for her conservative National Action Party (PAN) has been eroded by the rising tide of brutality that has swept across Mexico since President Felipe Calderon sent in the army to fight drug gangs soon after taking office in December 2006. In an interview late on Sunday after 49 decapitated bodies were found on a highway outside the northern city of Monterrey, Vazquez Mota said the origins of Mexico’s violence can be traced to years of neglect or collusion during decades of PRI rule.

“Seven out of 10 murders committed by organized crime happen in states governed by the PRI, which is an unequivocal sign that there has been omission, indifference and complicity that must be proven by the proper authorities,” she told Reuters.

Read more…

The Week in Review: 5/14/2012

Katie Putnam, The Mexico Institute’s Elections Guide, 5/14/2012

The PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto appears to hold his lead in the polls after the first presidential debate, and some observers bemoan the lack of interest among young Mexicans in the election and politics more generally.

The first polls after the first presidential debate suggest that the PRI’s Enrique Peña Nieto held on to his lead. According to Mitofsky polling firm, Peña Nieto increased his lead slightly by 0.7 percent since May 1 to 38.5 percent. The PAN’s Josefina Vázquez Mota dropped by half a point to 21.4 percent, her lowest in the campaign yet. Andrés Manuel López Obrador rose by almost a percentage point to 19 percent and PANAL candidate Gabriel Quadri reached 1.9 percent, up from 1.1 percent.

Read more…

AL DÍA: ¿Qué opinan? Firmas del día: 5/14/12

The Mexico Institute, AL DÍA: News and Analysis from the Mexico Institute, 5/14/12

Each morning, through the Mexico Portal feature, “¿Qué opinan? Firmas del día”, we will bring you an assortment of op-ed pieces from five major Mexican dailies: Reforma, El Universal, La Jornada, Excelsior and Milenio. Enjoy!

Cada día, por la entrada titulada, “¿Qué opinan? Firmas del día”, vamos a traerles un surtido de artículos de opinión de cinco periódicos populares de México: Reforma, El Universal, La Jornada, Excelsior y Milenio. ¡Que lo disfruten!

Disenchantment may keep Mexico’s young voters on sidelines

Los Angeles Times, 5/12/12

Many feel alienated and disgusted by the lack of democratic progress in the nation and say they may boycott the presidential election. They areMexico’s “democracy babies” — a generation that grew up just as the nation broke free of decades of all-encompassing one-party rule.

Only 12 years ago, young people flocked to the polls with high hopes as part of what would be a historic ouster of the long-ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI. Now, as the country prepares to pick a new president in July,Mexico’s young sound mostly disillusioned by the choices before them, and by joblessness and skyrocketing drug violence that have hit them especially hard. On paper at least, these 24 million voters under 30 — nearly a third of the electorate — could be a powerful voice for change. But many have come to view the democratic transition as so much blah-blah-blah in the face of a system that remains deeply marred by corruption and filled with politicians who are as self-interested as ever.

“Why go vote? It’s only a waste of time. They’re all the same — they all lie, they all steal and no one helps you,” said 20-year-old Sergio Guerrero, who on a recent day was selling lamb tacos at a street market here.

Read more…