What March’s Murder Rate Says About Trends in Mexico Violence

In Sight: Organized Crime in the Americas, Alejandro Hope, 4/30/12

Last month’s murder figures have some positive implications for Mexico, argues Alejandro Hope — violence continues to fall in the long term, with signs that criminal groups may be shifting towards policies of more caution and lower visibility.

March’s statistics on the state of violence in the country bring both good and bad news. As in previous months, all the data comes from the Executive Secretariat of the National System of Public Security. And once again, a clarification: the figures are used to indicate trends.

As is already well known, there is under-reporting of all crimes (including homicide), but there is strong evidence that the error is more or less systematic. Official information tells us where we are going, but it doesn’t quite tell us where we are.

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